This Tamil Nadu election, the DMK has been desperately aiming to keep the core narrative as "Tamil Nadu versus Delhi". Its propaganda machine - as it has since 2019 - has been relentlessly pumping into the state accusations that the BJP is an existential threat to the state's identity, that the AIADMK is a "slave" to the BJP, and that the DMK is the only force capable of standing up to New Delhi.
This, along with the Stalin government's welfare schemes and manifesto promises, is the DMK campaign. The design was twofold: keep Vijay's TVK (Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam) out of the conversation and maintain the "Centre vs State" friction that proved so potent in 2019, 2021, and 2024.
This narrative was facing enormous fatigue. Having been the primary talking point for three consecutive election cycles, local factors were beginning to dominate. The TVK fan power was threatening to shake up the status quo, and the AIADMK organisation was beginning to show signs of resilience. All of this was making the DMK uneasy.
It's at this juncture that the delimitation debate has arrived. The timing of the special session has baffled many analysts in Tamil Nadu, as what unfolds in Parliament will decisively shape the electoral narrative in the state.
The issue is a "perfect storm" for the DMK. It acts as fresh fuel for a political narrative that was losing steam. The party has mastered the art of framing this as the ultimate proof of "discrimination against the state".
What the Centre says and how it is heard amidst the electoral "surround sound" in Tamil Nadu will be vastly different. This shift firmly turns the battle into a DMK vs. BJP face-off, leaving the AIADMK deeply disconcerted.
This is also not just about delimitation; this is about unfurling a narrative of distrust against the Centre. The core DMK arguments are: 1) There are no categorical assurances of the formula for the increase for each state in the bill; 2) The Center cannot be trusted-rather, it must not be trusted; 3) The timing, suddenly in the midst of elections, makes it suspect; and 4) The DMK is the only force that has galvanised the opposition against this bill.
The bill to be introduced by the Centre proposes to increase the number of seats from 543 to 850. While there are absolutely no assurances of the pro-rata increase or formula in writing in the bill, the Centre has said it will make an assurance of a "uniform 50% increase" for all states, and not an increase based on population, in Parliament.
However, such an assurance is debatable as it defeats the purpose of equal representation for all citizens. Why such an increase is happening, and why in such a hurry, remains a puzzle. These arguments are far too complex to be understood in the midst of election rhetoric. At this stage, all it will do is feed emotion and propaganda rather than foster a calibrated debate on an issue that will shape India's democratic future.
In fact, a few days ago, an AIADMK strategist, when asked about the possibility of the delimitation bill, had said, "We are confident they won't bring it." Its arrival hurts the party, especially as the DMK's campaign has consistently accused Edappadi K Palaniswami (EPS) of capitulating to the BJP.
Another significant impact is the potential to squeeze the TVK out of the narrative. This issue allows the DMK to consolidate its position and provides a grassroots argument to divert attention from Vijay's entry.
While it may not reduce Vijay's "fan power" or his personal popularity, it prevents the DMK's core political constituency from withering away and offers a compelling reason for undecided voters to return to the fold. In a high-stakes election, that may be all the party needs to hold its ground.
The BJP's calculus may involve a push for the women's vote via the Women's Reservation Bill - a likely motivator for the sudden special session. Whether this strategy pays dividends in West Bengal remains to be seen. But in Tamil Nadu, it serves the interests of the ruling state force. It gives the DMK the very "dynamite" it needs to blast through the opposition's defences.
(The author is Executive Editor, NDTV)
Disclaimer: These are the personal opinions of the author
from NDTV News- Special https://ift.tt/ehJ5q8y
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